Read the plotted points off the scatter graph
(2,8), (3,12), (4,14), (5,14), (6,18), (7,18), (8,5), (8,20), (9,24) Each cross is one of the 9 days. Reading its x-value off the horizontal axis and its y-value off the vertical axis gives the pairs above.
Write down the range of the x-values in the data
2≤x≤9 The smallest x-value plotted is 2 and the largest is 9. This range is what decides later whether an estimate is interpolation or extrapolation, so it is always worth writing down.
Write down the range of the y-values in the data
5≤y≤24 The y-values run from 5 to 24 tens of ice creams.
Decide which way the points slope
x↑⇒y↑ As the temperature increases, the number sold increases too: the points climb from bottom left to top right. That is positive correlation.
Write down the two points the line of best fit passes through
(0,5)and(9,23) The question gives two points on the line: (0,5) and (9,23). Everything about the line — its gradient, its equation, every estimate read from it — comes from these two points.
Divide the rise by the run to get the gradient
m=918=2 The gradient is rise divided by run, so m=2. A positive gradient is exactly what positive correlation looks like.
Write down where the line crosses the y-axis
The line passes through (0,5), so the intercept is c=5.
Write the equation of the line of best fit
With gradient 2 and intercept 5 the line of best fit is y=2x+5. Using the equation is more accurate than squinting at the graph.
Measure how far each point is from the line of best fit
∣5−21∣=16vs at most1 Every other point is within 1 tens of ice creams of the line, but (8,5) is 16 tens of ice creams away from it. That is what makes it an outlier: not that it is the biggest or the smallest, but that it does not follow the trend.
Say what the outlier does to the line of best fit
outlier⇒line pulled towards it An outlier drags the line of best fit towards itself and makes the correlation look weaker than it really is, which is why it is worth identifying before drawing any line.
Take the outlier out and look again
remaining 8 points: y=2x+5 With (8,5) removed, the other 8 points lie close to y=2x+5 — that is the line quoted in the question.
Describe the correlation of the remaining points
Strong positive correlation Without the outlier the remaining points show strong positive correlation, so the outlier was hiding a clear trend.
Decide what to do about the outlier
check it, do not just delete it An outlier may be a recording mistake, or it may be a genuine unusual case. You should say that it does not fit the trend — you cannot simply cross it out because it is inconvenient.
Note the mistake to avoid
correlation=causation Two traps on scatter graphs: a strong correlation never proves that one quantity causes the other, and a line of best fit is only trustworthy inside the range of the data.
Write down the outlier
outlier=(8,5) The point (8,5) is the one that does not follow the trend, so it is the outlier.